How the dollar will end at the end of the year, according to (risky) market analysts
Today there is no such a complicated task for market analysts as forecasting the price of the dollar at the end of the year. It is complicated in day to day, and the same thing elucidate its evolution to a month. The maelstrom that the exchange rate has gone through this year swept all kinds of forecasts, and only one certainty prevails: it is very complex to make projections about the price of the currency against the peso, in the current context of high uncertainty, both by global factors (increase of the rate in the US, elections in Brazil), but above all by domestic risks (confidence in the economic program 2018-2019).
Beyond this, some analysts consulted by ámbito.com were encouraged to try some scenarios and estimate, as a result, a level of the dollar to December, although with certain conditions, waiting for news on a possible reformulation of the stand-by agreement with the IMF.
For Federico Furiase, director of the consultancy Eco Go, in a scenario where financial stabilization is supposed, and a dollar that in the period September - December moves in line with inflation, assuming a rise in the price index of 2% per month , estimates a wholesale exchange rate for the end of the year in the area of $ 34- $ 34.50 (along with annual inflation of 34%).
In an opposite context - which today is not seeing it - where the country risk continues to rise, and reserves fall, along with the high maturities of Letes in dollars, “the currency will continue to escape above inflation at of more recession, in which case the exchange rate could exceed $ 35 by the end of the year, “he projects.
“The Government should prioritize the BCRA’s reserves against the high maturities of Letes in dollars and look for a contingent financing line or a disbursement advance from the IMF to close the financial program here by the end of 2019, and from there banish the doubts that today the market has around the financial program, “says the director of Eco Go.
When it seemed that the storm had calmed down in July, the Turkish lira collapsed earlier this month, and the devaluation of the Brazilian real, which once again put pressure on the Argentine peso, despite the interventions (auctions) of the BCRA.
“With the dynamics of these days, four months are an eternity to think about a dollar value, the truth is that it is really unpredictable,” says economist Iván Carrino.
The specialist sees a floor for the end of the year, and finds it difficult to clarify a roof. “There is capital outflow, uncertainty and inflation, and the ceiling may be, the issue is how much recession that ceiling ceiling implies, that is, the higher the dollar rises, the harder the recession will be with inflation,” he explains.
To avoid this, Carrino believes that “you do not have to go out and sell all the dollars, unless you decide to set an exchange rate or to dollarize the economy.” What you have to do is give confidence, with more fiscal adjustment measures and ensuring that you have all the financing you need, “he says. In that framework, you would not be surprised by a $ 35 dollar at the end of the year.
How much do you think the value of the dollar will close at the end of the year?
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, chief economist at Ecolatina, envisions two scenarios towards the end of the year, one positive, with the wholesale dollar at $ 32, and another negative, with the price at the levels of $ 35.40. The reality is that the price of the dollar could find a price for December in the center of that strip, he points out. On the one hand, “the data of the trade balance and tourism can give a bit of respite to the current account deficit”, after the strong devaluation in recent months, he says. But the key remains “the confidence that can restore the Government to the market,” he warns.
For the economist Gustavo Ber “it is impossible to make projections in this context, since the currency exchange is not balanced and there is too much uncertainty among economic agents regarding the evolution of events.”
For now, “there are no internal or external conditions that allow us to try to anticipate how far the dollar can go, it is in the middle of a storm and the operators respond in a panic mode by liquidating positions, even at the risk of’overshooting’ (overreaction). ), “he says.
Analysts agree that the imbalances of the macro (high fiscal deficit, in important debt maturities), along with local political noises (notebooks) play against, and that a “more complex” world gives more leeway to dollarization ( liquidation of local assets) and the vicious circle of mistrust, as it is an ongoing process among emerging countries, especially those most vulnerable, such as Argentina.